Guide

Price increase or promotion? How to tell the difference

Signs of each, a log of promotions we saw on vendor pages, and how to check before you re-budget.

Updated October 11, 2026 · Examples read August to October 2026

A price increase is a new list price that replaces the old one and stays. A promotion is a temporary price that is shown beside the list price and then ends or is swapped for another offer. The two look alike on a pricing page, because both put a number in front of you that differs from last month’s. They mean different things for a budget: an increase changes what you pay from now on, while a promotion mostly changes what a new customer pays at the start.

StackWatch reads each vendor’s pricing page every day and records list prices only. The examples below come from those reads between August and October 2026.

Signs you are looking at a promotion

• A struck-through price beside a lower one. Lacerte’s page, read on September 7, 2026, showed $813 a year struck through beside $599, and a banner reading “Free 2025 extension returns, plus 35% off bundles”. The page labels neither figure; StackWatch treats the struck-through $813 as the list price and $599 as the promotion, so ask which one applies at renewal.
• A time limit in the wording. “50% off for 3 months” (QuickBooks Online), “90% off for 6 months” (Xero), a $0 base fee “for the first 6 months” (Gusto’s Contractor Only card) and “$10.5 per month until 31 October” (a Dext add-on).
• A banner that keeps changing. QuickBooks Online’s banner read “SALE EXTENDED / 90% OFF” on August 29, 2026 and “50% off for 3 months” on September 6, 2026, and an “Ends 8/27” banner stayed up past its stated end date. The list prices behind it did not change.
• The real price in small type. Xero’s cards led with $2.50, $5.50 and $9 a month, with “Then $25 / $55 / $90 per month” underneath (read September 12, 2026).
• A recurring offer. OnPay’s page title and footer advertise “Get one month free”, which can appear and disappear without any change to the list price (read September 10, 2026).

Signs of a real price increase

• The list price itself changes, and the new figure stays. QuickBooks Online’s list prices were $38, $85, $140 and $340 when StackWatch first recorded them on August 5, 2026 and when it re-checked on September 6, and StackWatch’s daily records from September 12 to October 5 show the same list prices throughout, while promotional banners came and went.
• The vendor announces it with a date. Xero’s own update page says Early goes from $25 to $27, Growing from $55 to $59 and Established from $90 to $97 a month for new and existing US subscribers from October 1, 2026.
• It takes effect at renewal, so it reaches people at different times. According to Intuit’s product-update page, the QuickBooks Online increase applied to direct subscriptions renewing on or after August 1, 2026, and applies to subscriptions managed through the QuickBooks Solution Provider program on renewals from September 1, 2026. That is one increase reaching two groups on different dates, not a second increase.
• A dated source reports it. The July 1, 2025 QuickBooks Online increase (Simple Start $35 to $38, Essentials $65 to $75, Plus $99 to $115, Advanced $235 to $275) is documented by a dated trade-press report from Insightful Accountant, linked in the price history.

Promotions StackWatch saw on vendor pages, August to October 2026

None of these are in the price history, because none is a change to a list price.

When a promotion and an increase overlap

They can run at the same time. QuickBooks Online’s list prices rose for renewals from August 1, 2026 (Essentials $75 to $85, Plus $115 to $140, Advanced $275 to $340; Simple Start stayed at $38), while the page was advertising 90% off and then 50% off for three months. Xero’s “90% off for 6 months” offer was stated to end at 11:59pm UTC on September 30, 2026, the day before its list prices rose to $27, $59 and $97. A reader budgeting from the September page would have used $25, $55 and $90, which were the “then” prices on that page. See the QuickBooks Online price history and the Xero price history for the dated figures.

How to check before you re-budget

1. Find the list price: the figure without an end date, usually the struck-through or “then” price.
2. Ask what the plan renews at when the offer ends, and get the answer in writing.
3. Look for a vendor notice with an effective date, such as a pricing-update page or partner email.
4. Check your own renewal date, and whether you buy direct or through a reseller or partner program.
5. Compare with the price history for the vendor. A real increase appears there with a date and a source.
6. If you are choosing between a free trial and a discount, check the terms: QuickBooks Online’s page offered a 30-day free trial alongside its discount, and earlier vendor notes describe the trial as an alternative to the discount, not an addition.

How StackWatch tells them apart

StackWatch counts a list-price change only when the new price shows on two consecutive daily reads or the vendor announces it, and it records the list price, not the promotional price. A banner starting, ending or changing is not recorded as a price change. That keeps the timeline of price increases and the cost calculator limited to changes you can plan around. The method page explains how each figure is checked.